New vehicle sales in the United States are projected to increase 6.6% in October as consumers spend in record amounts, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData. Total new-vehicle sales for the month, which include retail and non-retail transactions, are anticipated to reach 1,201,800 units.
That translates to a 6.6% increase from October 2022, keeping in mind that the number of selling days in October 2023 is one less than in 2022. When comparing the same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days, the result is an increase of 2.5% from a year ago.
“October results indicate a relatively robust performance with modest year-over-year sales growth but with record consumer expenditures,” said Thomas King, President of the Data and Analytics division at J.D. Power, in a statement. “Year-to-date total sales through October are anticipated to surpass 12.8 million units, reflecting a 13.6% increase compared with the same period a year ago.”
J.D. Power expects the seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales to be 15.5 million units — an increase of 0.9 million units when compared to the same period last year. As for the year-to-date total sales through October, King said these figures remain below pre-pandemic levels when year-to-date sales exceeded 14 million units.
“The UAW work stoppage, which commenced in September, has had a limited effect on October’s industry sales. However, if the duration of the stoppage extends and scope escalates, it may disrupt sales results as we move into year-end.”
Dealers in the U.S. can expect that, as inventory issues improve and sales volumes rise, the average new-vehicle retail transaction price will decline slightly. It is trending down $451 (1%) from October 2022, to $45,651. Decline aside, J.D. Power said consumers are on track to spend almost $43.7 billion on new vehicles this month — “the highest on record for the month of October and 0.8% higher than October 2022.”
